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台积电2024H1产能利用率重回80%,苹果开始拉动3nm产能放量

2023-11-22 18:30:36
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2023年半导体产业并没有按预计那样在第二季度复苏,即便第四季度库存已接近谷底,但受限于总体经济状况,反弹似乎还是太早了。随着库存情况继续改善、车用市场回暖、以及人工智能(AI)需求爆发,台积电在2024年似乎迎来了健康成长,且表现优于整体市场。

据DigiTimes报道,台积电2023年全年营收跌幅有可能比预期更小一些,这主要得益于年底前产能利用率回升,而且2024年上半年有可能重新回到80%以上。市场需求主要来自终端设备需求回升和人工智能需求拉升,高通、英伟达和AMD等客户扩大了投片的规模。

另外一个重要因素,是台积电报价1万美元以上的7nm以下工艺占整体营收的比重持续提高,同时CoWoS封装订单也在攀升,而且有着美元强势的加持。当然,台积电头号客户苹果功不可没,有着稳健表现的iPhone,加上各种Mac和iPad新品,报价达2万美元的3nm工艺开始放量明显带动了近期台积电的营收。

有业内人士表示,台积电至今年底,6/7nm产能利用率能守住70%,4/5nm产能利用率接近80%,3nm月产能大概在每月6至7万片晶圆,预计明年底会提升至每月10万片晶圆。不过需要注意的是,台积电3nm工艺的良品率较低,明显影响了毛利率,即便到明年也会有较大压力。

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